Goldman Sachs economists Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa say the Treasury’s early June deadline for the debt ceiling looks “very accurate, in our view.” Their calculation is that by June 2, the Treasury’s room under the debt ceiling will barely exceed $30 billion — the minimum cash the Treasury has targeted in prior debt-limit projections — and entirely dry by June 9. They say odds are highest that a deal will be announced late Friday or Saturday. They give an 80% chance to a full-fledged deal, a 10% probability of a short-term patch and a 10% chance Congress doesn’t act in time.
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